A formal framework of vulnerability (Month 24)

This report presents the final version of the formal framework of vulnerability developed in ADAM Work Package A1 at PIK. Vulnerability and related concepts such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity are not defined consistently in the climate change and related scientific communities. Formalisation addresses this challenge by providing precise definitions of concepts as well as the means for analysing different definitions and useages of the concepts.

Meta-analysis of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA) assessments in Europe (Month 39)

The meta-analysis was carried out in direct cooperation with two other tasks of ADAM: the development of a formal framework of vulnerability (ADAM A1.1) and the development of a digital adaptation compendium (ADAM A1.5b). The first task addressed the conceptual confusion within the climate change community by applying methods of linguistic analysis and formalisation in order to develop a consistent, formal framework of CCIVA concepts. The meta-analysis builds upon this formal framework. The second task develops a web site that aims at making the results produced within the ADAM adaptation work-packages available in a form that meets the demands of adaptation decision makers and practitioners. Coded studies will be accessible via this web site. Thus, the meta-analysis was not carried out exclusively for scientific ends but also to the end of making its results available to the public.

A macro-economic assessment of impacts and adaptation to climate change in Europe (Month 39)

This report provides a documetation of the integrated macroeconomic general equilibrium model GRACE_adapt, and presents results from the macro-economic analysis of impacts and adaptation in Europe in case of a +2 degree Centigrade and +4 degree Centigrade increase in global mean temperature. 

Final report on policy analysis and adaptive capacity (Month 36)

The purpose of this report is to reflect on evidence from each of the learning examples, as well as synthesising the findings to highlight those generic themes that have been identified as key institutional issues cutting across all case studies. In broad terms these can be categorised as:

• risk perception and levels of awareness (and how attitudes to risk affect behaviour),
• the role of information (and other resources) in building local adaptive capacity,
• how best to promote a process of 'learning to adapt', and
• ultimately how to support adaptation activity in the longer term.
  

Digital Compendium of Vulnerability (Month 39) 

This contributes to emerging knowledge on adaptation by acting as a portal for the dissemination of adaptation relevant results of the ADAM project. The Digital Compendium aims at complementing the traditional, report- and paper-based communication of scientific results by making results produced from work packages A1 and A2 available to a wider audiance in form of an interactive and user-friendly web-interface. Results from the following types of analysis are considered;

• workshops and interviews with decision-makers
  
• a meta-analysis of climate change impact
  
• adaptation catalogue
• analysis of risk of climate-related extremes such as floods and droughts.
  

 The ADAM Digital Compendium can be accessed on the menu button to the left, or via http://www.digital-compendium.adamproject.eu

An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe

Preliminary Report: maps of flood and drought risks (Month 18)

This technical report describes the adopted methodology and the outputs produced by task A2.1 during the first 18 months of the ADAm project. The key innovative aspects of the work herein presented are manifold:

• the quantification of the probabilistic monetary impact of extreme events;
• the combined use of modelling techniques and of observed data to supply the lack of information at the various scales of relevance of the study;
• the estimation of uncertainty arising from limitations in data availability and modelling assumptions;
• the geographical scale (continental) of the exceercise.

In short, the results herein presented, although still in a preliminary version, are unique because of their characteristics, format and way in which they have been produced.

An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe (Month 39)

This final report describes the updated results, in terms of maps and methodology, produced by task A2.1 during the second half of life of the ADAM project.

Preliminary impact assessment for 2° and 5°C scenarios (Month 18)

A review of impacts (especially related to floods, droughts and heat waves) is offered, with particular reference to the time horizons 2025 (average of projections for the interval 2020-2029) and end of 21st century.There is liasion with work packages S (Scenarios), other tasks within work package A2 and work packages P3di and P3diii (Tisza River Basin in Hungary and Guadiana River Basin in Spain and Portugal, respectively).

Risk and economic damage assessment for 2025 and 2100, with and without adaptation (Month 36)

In this report, concepts of methodology are outlined and projections of extreme events and their impacts, risks and damages, are presented, without consideration of adaptation and with consideration of adaptation. A review of impacts(especially related to floods, droughts and heat waves in agriculture, forest fires and windfalls), has particular reference to the time hoizon of 2020s and to the end of the 21st century. For the end of the 21st century, two ADAM Project scenarios are especially considred, represented by the global mean temperature rise of 2 degree and 4 degree Centigrade from the pre-industrial level. 

Preliminary report on Europe’s financial and economic vulnerability to meteorological extremes (Month 18)

This report starts with a discussion of the concept of economic vulnerability (and risk and resilience), for which definitions and operationalisations are offered. In order to assess the questions raised based on a systematic framework, this report sets out the IIASA methodology using the CATSIM model for specifying present-day economic vulnerability and risk to extreme weather events in selected "hot spot" regions / sectors.

Report on Europe's financial and economic vunerability to meteorological extremes (Month)

The report investigates allocative and distributional concerns about strategies to adapt to extreme events (caused by climate change). The underlying perspective taken in the analysis is of welfare economics.

Preliminary Report of interviews and design of survey instruments (Month 18)

The aim of this interim document is to report on research progress made with regards to ADAM task A2.4: innovative technologies and institutions for reducing and transferring risks, with specific reference to the interview process and design of the survey instrument. The specific focus of the research activity is to identify and evaluate those technological or institutional outcomes which are considered particularly innovative, with enabling institutional 'processes' also highlighted where relevant.

Review of Adaptation Options for Weather Extremes (Month 36)

This report should be read in conjunction with the Digital Compendium available on this website under 'ADAM Tools'.

Mainstreaming adaptation to extreme events

Interim report on desktop study on the potential for mainstreaming extreme-event adaptation strategies in EU policies - Policies review (Month 21)

This report presents the results of a desktop study aiming to analyse the major current policies and programmes of the European Union relevant for inclusion of adaptation options and to review their implementation stages adn procedures. This should in turn help in understanding if and how adaptation options can be proposed and potentially included in such programmes and policies.

Mainstreaming adaptation to extreme events: Report on desktop study on the potential for mainstreaming extreme-event adaptation strategies in EU policies (Month 39)

This report presents the results of a desktop study aiming to analyse the major current policies and programmes of the European Union relevant for adaptation to extreme events and to review their implementation procedures. The report reviews principally policies and programmes of the EU which are already adopted and which present the opportunity to develop actions (i.e.plans, projects or measures) adequate for adaptation to climate change. Directives and laws which have a predominantly regulatory scope will not be considered in this report.

Report on identified developing country regions for study of novel development assistance options, and characterization of risk profiles (Month 18)

This current report does not independently from the overarching research of A2.6 address a specific research qustion, but focuses on disaster risks affecting selected countries/regions, where innovative public-private insurance schemes are underway or have recently been implemented. This interim report is meant to set the stage and outline the context for the later analysis of risk financing options (month 36 deliverable)

Report on identified developing country regions for study of novel development assistance options, and characterisation of risk profiles (Month 36)

The purpose of this (and Deliverable P3b.3b) is to provide strategic options to the EU and its member countries for mainstreaming and restructuring development assistance, such that it promotes climate mitigation and adaptation in ways that are acceptable to the donor and recipient communities.

Strategic Assessment of the Impacts, Damage Costs, and Adaptation Costs of Climate Change in Europe (Month 12)

 The objective of this report is to address areas which are currently lacking in most assessments of the impacts and damage costs of climate change. This is achieved through a review of recent existing studies, a summary of the coverage of those studies, followed by a discussion of important gaps in existing research. The second section of this report then provides a more in-depth discussion of possible methods for making existing damage studies more comprehensive.

Adaptation in agriculture: historic effects of extreme events on UK agriculture and an asessment of the economics of adaptation (Month 39)

This report focuses on adaptation to extreme weather in the agricultural sector, looking at the effect that extreme events have had over time, what adaptations have ocurred, and how resilient the sector is to extreme weather. The second part of this report looks at some of the challenges involved in the economics of quantifying adaptation.

Report of the Reference and 2 degree Scenario for Europe (Month 30)

The objective of this deliverable is to report on the findings of two scenarios of future European greenhouse gas emissions until 2050 in a Reference Scenario and - to a limited extent - a 2 degree C scenario.

2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts (M39)

Our work package Mitigation 1 (M1) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The longer-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon [Jochem at al. 2009].  

Portfolio of Policy and Technological Options for P3a Case Study (Month 12)

A main purpose of this first deliverable is to provide the Work Package P3a with a portfolio of policy and technological options derived from model analysis to be used for their Post-2012 Case Study. Five models will be used for providing input to Work Package P3a. These models are: E3MG, MERGE-ETL, POLES, REMIND, WIAGEM.

  First asessment of the cost of EU and global mitigation policies (Month 20)

In this report we investigate four major issues;

• induced technological change and technological mitigation options
  
• policy regimes and international emissions trading
• the impact of climate policies on EU's competitiveness and energy security , and
• uncertainties adn risks of climate policies.
  

Second assessment of the costs of EU and global mitigation policies with a special focus on low stabilisation targets and their impact on economic growth and the competitiveness of the EU (Month 39)

The role of this Work Package (WP) M2 ('Mitigation at the global level') in this context is to assess important elements of global climate policies using numerical modelling methods. More specifically, studying the economics of mitigation options for a post-Kyoto era of the EU in a global context, allowing for assessing costs and technology options for low stabilisation policies, e.g. a 400ppm-eq target to keep the 2 degree Centigrade target with a high probability.

  Report on model comparison (Month 20)

The main objective is to find robust results despite differences between these five models and to identify the key model features that lead to diverging model results whilst focussing on the way induced technological chnage is modelled. Overall, this model comparison contains important information for future stakeholder interactions about possible technology and policy options in addition to the consequences and costs and robust strategies with respect to sensitivity and structural uncerainty analysis among the models.

Monte-Carlo Analysis: Is the European Climate Policy Target of 2 degree Centigrade Temperature Change Feasible and Justified? (Month 39)

 We apply Monte-Carlo (MC) techniques in MERGE to study critical temperature thresholds of climate change quantifying the risk of overshooting these thresholds.

Report on first assessment of low stabilisation scenarios (Month 29)

A comparison of global regionalised energy-environment-economy (E3) models is performed (Regional Modelling Comparison Project, RCMP) to explore the feasibility of different CO₂ stabilisation targets and to identify the key model features that lead to diverging model results.

The use of economic analysis in climate change appraisal of post-2012 climate policy (Month 39)

Insights and guidelines for climate change appraisals in the European electricity sector (Month 36)

 The aim of this deliverable is to provide an empirically grounded set of guidelines relevant to conducting climate change appraisals in the European electricity sector. More precisely, we focus on the stakeholder consultations in the European electricity sector, and we assess the extent to which they can and do address climate change considerations.

Requirements for an innovative regional appraising of climate change: Supporting Integrated Climate Governance (ICG), (Month 36)

This report summarises the lessons learnt from the interaction of the ADAM work package P1 on the development and requirements for robust innovative climate appraisal methods, with work package Pd3 on the regional case studies. This is a synthesis of a much broader research and dissemination work comprising over 20 scientific publications and conference papers on regional claimte appraising.

We review and analyse five regional case studies; the Inner Mongolia (Alxa league) in China, the Tisza floodplain in Hungary, the Guadiana river basin in Iberia, The Broads of East Anglia in the UK, and the Autonomous Community of Catalonia in Spain.

A conceptual and methodological framework for the Policy Appraisal Framework (PAF): Prototype 1 Methodology and Guidance (Month 06) 

This first prototype of the PAF combines an overview plus a guidance manual. It is important to realise this is a testing phase and that the PAF will be developed and refined as we go through the ADAM project.

 The PAF, as it is presented in this document, is a work in progress. Until monmth 24 of the ADAM project, it will be further developed into a 'public version', taking the form of a website. This document defines the PAF and its different functions and names potential users.

(Also available under the section WP / P1 documents of the ADAM web-site).

An empirically and theoretically grounded analysis of where there is a need for enhanced capacity for climate change appraisal in Europe (Month 24)

 The objective of this deliverable is to provide a sampling of recent climate change appraisal processes in the EU and introduce a conceptual framework for the evaluation of climate change appraisals. 

Together with research outputs from across the ADAM project the work presented here will form the basis for an analysis (during Year 3 of ADAM and completed by M36) of current trends and future directions for climate change appraisals in Europe (to be reported in the Synthesis and Integration report as a M36 deliverable from WP P1). In particular the data gathered through the meta-analysis of evaluations of climate change policies (Work Package P2), and the meta-analysis of vulnerability assessments (Work Package A1) will be analysed to develop an understanding of how participation and process outcomes are being used in appraisal processes at different scales and in different contexts.

Report on the collaborative research on climate change appraisal during the first 18-months of the ADAM project (Month 22)

 The objectives of this deliverable are to:

a) report on the collaborative research conducted by Work Package P1 of ADAM during the project's first 18-months (i.e. during the first half of a three year project);

b) to present and analyse the lessons learnt, and,

c) articulate the revised objectives defined for research in the second half of the project. 

This deliverable aims, therefore, to provide a 'bridge' between the first and second halves of the ADAM project. The primary focus here is on the research process itself, substantive research findings are reported in a series of deliverables from the respective P3 and P2 work packages.

Synthesis and Integration Report: Climate Change Appraisal in the EU: Current trends and future challenges (Month 36)

The purpose of this deliverable is to outline a framework for the analysis of current and future appraisals of climate related policies. We argue that reflexivity needs to be built into processes of appraising climate-related policies, so that climate change goals can be continuously reassessed in the light of new scientific understanding and changing political, economic, environmental and social contexts which may have profound implications for what constitutes a fit for purpose climate change strategy.

Climate Change Inventory: structure and classification (Month 09)

The ADAM inventory is unique in that it seeks to capture climate change policy efforts in their entirety, cataloguing different instruments and their implicit and explicit goals across a range of sectors.

Climate Policy and Governance: A Theoretical and Methodological Framework to Guide Research (Month 36)

 The aim of this working paper is to give work package P2 a grounding in the relevant theoretical and methodological literatures in public policy, political science and policy appraisal / evaluation. More specifically, it seeks to inform: the systematic inventorisation of mitigation and adaptation policies in the memeber states of the EU; the meta-analysis of existing studies that have evaluated the performance of these policies; the appraisal of current EU policies, both individually and as they interact with cognate policies in 'non' climate sectors; and the decvelopment and appraisal of alternative portfolios of policies, in ways that provide a better appreciation of likely associated governance dilemmas. 

Climate Change Inventory (Month 09)

The ADAM EU Climate Policy Inventory is the first major deliverable of the ADAM P2 work package and to that end serves as the starting point for the P2 analysis of EU climate policies. The main objective of the inventory is to provide a snapshot of existing (and in some cases proposed) mitigation and adaptation measures by inventorying their reported policy measures recommendations and concerns. For consistency and to avoid any potential imbalance in representation, material was collected from open sources such as UNFCCC National Communications, as well as other national reports (see Annex 1 for detailed explanation for using self-reporting documents).

In this case the ADAM inventory is unique in that it seeks to capture climate change policy efforts in their entirety, cataloguing different instruments and their implicit and explicit goals across a range of sectors.

How Effective are European Climate Policies (Month 18)

This paper reports on the findings of a meta-analysis of 262 policy evaluations conducted by EU and six of its Member States. The paper has two principal concerns. Firstly, how has the 'evaluation community' in our chosen jurisdictions attempted to evaluate climate policy? Secondly, what light can the evaluations that have been performed shed on the factors underlying policy effectiveness (taken to mean the capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?)

Appraisal of EU Climate Policies (Month 23)

This builds on previous work (the inventory of climate policies, D-P2.2, and the meta-analysis of climate policies, D-P2.3). The first part answers the question what makes climate policy effective. The second part is an evaluation of climate change policies across Europe. The third part contains an analysis of the discussions and conclusions from a policy workshop held in January 2008.

Study on the effectiveness of the EU ETS:

The EU ETS in the European climate policy mix: past, present and future (Month 39)

 This report contributes to, and synthesises the work conducted on the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) in Work Package P2 on Policy and Governance. This Work Package seeks to map and appraise current climate and related policies and governance systems in the European Union.

Proposals for alternative climate policy portfolios (Month 33)

 In this report we apply a scenario analysis to the future of EU climate policy. We aim to say something about the robustness of EU policy approaches, as well as demonstrate how scenario analysis can be applied in policy analysis. We take three framing devices;

• a scenarios framework developed specifically for the purpose of assessing EU climate policy
  
• a choice of 5 climate policy domains for special attention; i) the EU-Emissions Trading Scheme, ii) EU Renewables Energy Sources (RES) policy, iii) burden sharing in EU climate policy, iv) adaptation in EU climate policy and v) adaptation as applied in EU water resource management policy
• and six 'governance dilemmas' which provide a conceptual framework for analysing climate policies in each of the four scenarios.
  

Research results are based on about 50 interviews with European climate policy experts conducted between May and September 2008.

Appraisal of alternative climate strategies (Month 39)

 The objective of this deliverable is to;

• synthesise the scenario analysis conducted within the 'Policy and Governance' Work package and
  
• present the survey results of an expert appraisal on a selection of issues that relate to different strategies for future European climate policy.
  

Mapping of current options (and challenges) for a Post-2012 climate regime (Month 06)

 Chapter 1 analyses the current arena of climate policies from the perspective of 'polity', i.e. the hard-ware of the global political system that is in place or emerging to address the problem of climate change. Chapter 2 contributes to the conceptual and theoretical debate about global climate polity by theorizing about the role of primary institutions for the success of global climate governance.  Chapter 3 provides a brief assessment of possible future climate regimes and their main characteristics based on the use of the meta-model FAIR, developed by ADAM partner MNP (now PBL). Chapter 4 takes a more encompassing look at the current arena of climate policies and assesses the relation between mitigation and adaptation options with a particular view on technological options. Finally, Chapter 5 adds the perspective of South Asian countries to the debate by discussing their opinions and reservations with regard mitigation and adaptation optoins for the post 2012 climate regime.

Preliminary Integrated Analysis of Different Possible Portfolios of Policy Options for a Post-2012 Climate Architecture (Month 12)

 Chapter 1 introduces the three research foci of the P3a team which will structure our case study activities until the end of the project. Chapter 2 uses this structure of three research foci to present the major options which are currently discussed for international post-2012 climate policies. Chapter 3 summarises the positions of major country groups and other stakeholders in these options.  Chapter 4 introduces a set of criteria by which we intend to map and appraise the varoius post-2012 options. It then applies these criteria, mapping the various options according to their core characteristics. Chapter 5 draws conclusions of this preliminary integrated analysis by selecting major portfolios of options which will be the objects of our in-depth appraisal in the coming twelve months of the project.

Integrated Analysis of Different Possible Portfolios of Policy Options for a Post-2012 Architecture (Month 24)

 Within the ADAM project, Work Package P3a serves as a case study which analyses the options for global climate governance beyond 2012. This report has a dual task:

 -  it will continue the presentation of our analyses and innovative proposals, thereby following up on our earlier reports, particularly D-P3a.3a (Month 18):

 - it will structure these proposals, based on our matrix developed in our Month 12 report D-P3a.2a.

A preliminary set of innovative options for post-2012 climate politics (Month 18)

 This report focuses on the architecture theme of Work Package P3a (others are; agency beyond the state and adaptation). This report summarises the team's research and preliminary results. It contains five chapters that present first ideas for novel post-2012 options.

A final set of innovative options for post-2012 climate policies (Month 39)

This report summarises the core findings of the research group 'Post-2012 Climate Governance' of the ADAM project. Building on earlier suggestions in deliverable P3a.3a, this deliverable summarises our policy recommendations concerning governance architectures. These include strengthening dialogues among environment, trade and development ministries; widenig the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System and linking it with other schemes; initating formal co-operation between the UN climate regime and Asia-Pacific Partnership and other multilateral partnerships; agreeing on science-based sustainability criteria for removing trade barriers for climate-friendly goods and services; and considering climate-related issue links and package deals in the WTO Doha Round.

The complete findings of the study programme reported here are presented in Global Climate Governance After 2012: Architecture, Agency and Adaptation (Biermann, Pattberg and Zelli 2010).

A first iteration of completed policy appraisal exercises of post-2012 policy options (Month 18)

This deliverable is a synopsis of our research activities, please consult our other Month 18 Deliverable (D-P3a.3a) for a summary of our preliminary research findings and of the optoins for post-2010 climate goverance we have developed so far.

First report on the Implementation of the Science Policy Workshops (Month 25)

This report describes the chosen methodology of the first two ADAM-CEPS Science Policy Workshops, evaluates their outcome and makes a number of recommendations in relation to the format and management of the remaining workshops and, most importantly, the final ADAM Brussels conference.

Second Report on the Implementation of the Science Policy Workshops (Month 39)

This report describes the chosen methodology of the CEPS/ADAM Science Policy Workshops and the Final Conference and evaluates their outcome. The workshops were successful and confirmed the appropriateness of the structures adopted. The topics addressed were:

1. 'Why we will need adaptation and how it can be implemented?' (Bo Kjellen, Chair), 12 October 2007.
2. 'The Future of European Electricity: Choices before 2020' (Bill Kyte, Chair), 4 April 2008.
3. 'Climate Governance after 2012: Options for EU Policy' (Bo Kjellen, Chair), 1 October 2008.
4. 'Reaching the 2 degree Centigrade target: Technological requirements, economic costs and policies' (Bert Metz, Chair), 11 February 2009.
   

Six CEPS/ADAM Policy Briefs have been published as an outcome of the workshops, and have obtained marked success with a total number of almost 5500 downloads from the CEPS online bookshop (as of 26 June 2009).

The Science Policy workshops, together with the ADAM Final Conference contributed in bringing the ADAM research results to a public of policy-makers (as well as other stakeholders such as business, industry and NGOs) and therefore bridging the gap between research and its potential beneficiaries.

Final report on climate change and development cooperation policy

This Deliverable is based on a forthcoming book,"Mainstreaming Climate Change in Development Cooperation: Theory, Practice and Implications for the European Union". Edited by Joyeeta Gupta and Nicolien van der Grijp. This is part of a series of four books to be published by Cambridge University Press that summarises the outputs of the ADAM project.

Report on Stakeholder Views of Development / Humanitarian Assistance

Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Mainstreaming as Seen and Engaged with at the Recipient's End (Month 21)

IATAL — an outline proposal for an International Air Travel Adaptation Levy (Month 18)

This paper highlights the political advantages and moral reasons for an emissions trading scheme with auction revenues hypothecated for adaptation which is ethically, economically and politically attractive.

Development and Climate CHange in the Himalayan Region: Final Report on stakeholder views of development / humanitarian assistance and its contribution to climate and development (Month 39)

Here, in this final deliverable, we explain the various workshops, round-tables, sets of interviews and so on that we have carried out, together with brief summaries of the main findings.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Official Development Assistance: Issues and Early Experiences (Month 39)

The aim of this research is to develop theoretical and empirical insights into how bilateral donor agencies conceptualise and implement the mainstreaming of adaptation into ODA, based on which opportunities are identified to move towards and share good practices in agencies' approaches to mainstreaming.

Report on strategic policy options on innovative policies for advancing climate mitigation and adaptation through development assistance (Month 36)

This document is comprised of a compendium of papers and activities carried out by the LUCSUS team. They include;

1. Executive Summary
2. A published article (Adaptation and the poor: development, resilience and transition) by Jerneck and Olsson (Climate Change Policy, 2008 Vol 8, pp 170-182) on setting the broad frames in which climate change adaptation and mitigation should be studied
3. A book chapter (Perspectives from the Poorest of the Poor) by Jerneck and Olsson that will be part of one of the ADAM books, submitted to Cambridge University Press by Biermann, Pattberg and Zelli: Global Climate Governance Post 2012: Architecture, Agency and Adaptation.
4. A submitted article (Farmers fighting climate change - from victims to agents in subsistence livelihoods) by Jerneck and Olsson (submitted to Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change).
5. A book chapter (Mainstreaming Climate Change in Development Cooperation Policy: Conditions for Success) that will be part of the overall ADAM synthesis, to be published by Cambridge University Press. This chapter provides a more general overview of the findings from P3b, and the P3b.3a team has contributed to the chapter.
   

Report on strategic policy options on innovative policies for mainstreaming adaptation through pro-active disaster financing and prevention (Month 36)

This deliverable reports on strategic and innovative policies for mainstreaming adaptation through pro-active disaster financing and prevention for developing countries. A major focus of this deliverable is on risk financing, especially insurance, as an adaptation strategy. In combination, the activities which comprise this document not only provide options for mainstreaming adaptation through insurance and other types of pro-active risk financing for EU development assistance, but also contribute importantly to drafting the Copenhagen climate agreement.

Model enhancement and data collection (Month 24)

Policy appraisal for the Electricity sector: Impacts, mitigation, adaptation and long term investments for technological change (Month 36)

A conclusion from this analysis is that current and expected future prices for emissions and electricity likely will be too low to give sufficient stimulus on their own to far-reaching technological change. Whether and how this is addressed in Europe depends on - in part - whether Europe finds it important to meet the targets for2020 in ways that;

• lays the groundwork for further reductions towards 2050 and beyond, and
• also create new opportunities for cheaper emission reductions in other regions, regions that need much greater expansion in the power sector than does Europe.
  

Scoping Stakeholder Workshop and Interview for Guadiana and Tisza Region Case Studies (Month 9)

This deliverable consists of the execution of actual workshops and interviews in Tisza and Guadiana. Its results will be taken up in the scoping documents in Deliverable P3.Dii).

Final Results of the Regional Case Studies (Month 39)

This deliverable examines the constraints and opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in land use and water management in three study regions: the Guadiana River Basin in Spain and Portugal, the Tisza iver Basin in Hungary and the Alxa region in western Inner Mongolia, China.

Report on Baseline Data for Tisza Region Case Study: Scoping Document (Month 12)

This document is written after a series of interviews with stakeholders in the Tisza region, a fieldtrip, literature review and various discussions within the project team.

Final deliverable Scenario Workpackage (Month 36)

Both within the ADAM project and elsewhere in the scientific community, there is interest in exploring the relationships between adaptation and mitigation based on consistent sets of assumptions. The ADAM project developed scenarios to quantitatively assess possible future world developments, but also to provide a common basis of analysis for different Work Packages in the ADAM project. These scenarios were based on different combinations of assumed adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Report on impact / adaptation in Europe in relation to scenario development (Month)

The present report aims to relate impacts and adaptation in Europe to the two ADAM framing scenarios of climate futures until the end of the 21st century. A review of projected impacts and adaptation in Europe, with emphasis on climate extremes (particularly; floods, droughts and heat stress, wild fire and windfall) is offered, corresponding, where possible to ADAM's 2 degree and 4 degree scenarios, or their proxies, and based on a range of studies, including those made originally within the ADAM project in the work package A2.