First model runs suggest that existing technologies have sufficient potential to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 ppmv CO2-eq or below
To achieve the EU climate policy objective, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will have to be stabilized below 450ppm CO2-equivalent. This implies global emissions will need to be reduced by about 50% below 1990 levels. First model runs suggests that known technical measures have sufficient potential to deliver such an ambitious reduction. Yet, critical questions on how to achieve this potential remain unanswered.
European climate policy is based on the long-term objective of limiting the global temperature increase to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent studies exploring the relationship between the peak level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the subsequent increase in temperature show that only for a long-term concentration below 450ppm of CO2-eq is there a chance of more than 50% that the 2°C objective can be achieved. Lower concentrations such as 400ppm CO2-eq would increase the chances of delivering this objective beyond 50%. The few studies that have explored how to achieve such ambitious targets show that global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall to 50% below 1990 levels. In fact, for the lower concentration target of 400ppm net negative emissions (higher carbon uptake than carbon emissions) would be required.
ADAM is exploring the implications of the 2°C target in terms of economic and technical feasibility and also in terms of institutional and policy arrangements. First explorations show that, at least theoretically, the potential of mitigation measures throughout the world is sufficient to achieve 60% emissions reduction within five decades. The range of means of achieving this reduction is very wide: from nuclear energy to renewable energy Your browser may not support display of this image.sources, from energy saving through to carbon sinks. Energy saving is an important option that can play a considerable role in the total reduction measures over the next decade. In the longer term, the transition to carbon-neutral systems will be increasingly important. Alongside renewable energy sources or nuclear energy, CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS) could represent, worldwide, a very attractive technology. An example of a technology that could, in principle, result in negative emissions is the combination of biofuels with CCS.
To implement these scenarios an unprecedented worldwide effort would be needed, requiring a rapid transition of the energy system. Critical questions therefore remain. At what rate can these technologies be employed? What are the economic costs of such large-scale transitions? And what are the side-effects of these technologies? The ADAM work will contribute answers to some of these key questions. Our work will also take into account the new reality created by the rapid increase of oil prices, which offers both opportunities for, and risks to, emissions reductions.
For further information please see Work Package S or contact: Detlef van Vuuren, Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven,
