Many European regions and sectors are already vulnerable to natural hazards and economic losses are likely to rise with climate change
Many European regions and sectors are vulnerable to natural hazards and there is growing evidence of rising economic losses in Europe associated with extreme weather events. ADAM research contributes to improved adaptation decisions by: (i) mapping asset risks to flooding and droughts in Europe for today’s and future climates (direct risks); and (ii) estimating economic vulnerabilities and risks for the public and different sectors in Europe (indirect risks).
In Europe, wide-ranging impacts of changes in climate have been documented and there is continuity and consistency between observed changes and those projected for future climate change. Today, many regions and sectors in Europe are already vulnerable to increasing disaster risks because they lack resources to implement cost-effective loss-reduction and risk-transfer measures and are consequently inable to recover in a timely way after disaster events.
One focus of the research on extremes is concerned with providing digital maps of risks from natural extremes for Europe and identifying their costs. The innovation is that these maps are consistent, probability-based and spatially-explicit. We find that in almost all of the newest EU Member States risk as measured by annualized flood damage is higher than 1% of GDP. As hazards and risks are projected into the future we find a considerable increase in weather extremes (such as intense precipitation) in comparison to the control period (1961-1990). While for the 2020s differences to the control period are small, there is a considerable increase in extremes for the 2090s, in particular for a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. the 4°C ADAM scenario). For example, drought extremes in the Guadiana river basin and wet extremes in the Tisza river basin (two ADAM regional foci) will be significantly enhanced.
Another stream of activity focuses on the macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of the mapping exercise described above. This involves incorporating financial disaster risks and potential financing gaps for funding these losses into macroeconomic models in order to determine their fiscal and economic consequences.
Such risk analysis is important for local stakeholders and national/European authorities alike to raise awareness to exposures to current and future risks and thus helps to adapt more effectively to a changing regime of extreme events. For instance, the information may inform a more equitable and risk-based allocation of the EU solidarity fund, set up in 2002 after severe flooding over central Europe.
For further information see Work Package A2 or contact: Reinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna,
, or Nicola Lugeri, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra,
