To deliver on the EU 2°C target implies reducing annual per capita emissions to a maximum of 2 tonnes of CO2-eq by 2050
The mitigation options of Europe until 2050
The European Union target of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels within this century implies two main challenges: a substantial and continuous reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions (by about 70 to 80% or more of present emissions by the middle of this century) and a convincing foreign policy that strives for a maximum per capita emission of about 2 tonnes of carbon by 2050.
Within the ADAM project, we are evaluating technically feasible options for achieving the 2°C target in Europe by calculating the net cost and impacts of mitigation by sector at the European country level. The time horizon is 2050 for a detailed analysis, including the adaptation cost of the European energy system for a ‘4°C-scenario’ and for a ‘2°C-scenario’. The analysis also covers macro-economic impacts such as economic growth, employment, consumption, and foreign trade. Finally, trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation options of the European energy systems are considered. Results reveal that:
* Assuming no additional climate policy the energy-related annual CO2-emissions in Europe would still increase by 6% until around 2035 and stagnate thereafter in a baseline scenario until 2050
* The major drivers limiting the growth of greenhouse gas emissions are more efficient energy use that comes with the replacement and refurbishment of old equipment and buildings over the investment cycle an increasing use of renewables with high cost-reduction potentials and a higher share of nuclear electricity from 2035 on.
* Countries near the Atlantic or the North and Baltic Seas in a world of 4°C higher average temperatures would most probably have to adapt less to temperature increases (scarcely needing additional air conditioning), but may have to adapt more to storms and heavy precipitation. Countries in the Mediterranean area and those with more continental climates will need to adapt to temperature increases by deploying air conditioning and to a combination of higher temperatures and reduced run-off with different location and use of thermal power plants.
We have thus far estimated the adaptation costs of the European energy system for the ‘4°C-scenario’. The mitigation technologies necessary to realise a ‘2°C-scenario’ by the end of this century have been identified and their costs estimated, as well as the remaining (relatively small) adaptation cost of the energy system of Europe for such a scenario.
For further information see Work Package M1 or contact: Eberhard Jochem, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe,
